Arm, Instacart, Birkenstock ... the IPOs of 2023 and beyond

Just when things seemed quiet on the Initial Public Offering (IPO) front, Arm caused some market excitement with its recent listing and then Instacart and Klaviyo followed suit.

Strong debuts could be enough to thaw some of the IPO freeze seen in the last 18 months. Year-to-date, there have been 84 traditional IPOs, that's according to Dealogic. In 2021, however, global markets delivered 2,682 IPOs raising $608bn (£500.54bn), including 459 IPOs in EMEA, raising $99bn. Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
IPO Optimism Grows, Fueling Hope for Global Recovery

Bankers and investors are optimistic that a string of initial public offerings will cap off a quiet year for new issuance before things accelerate in 2024.

That’s the consensus across Wall Street after a flurry of deals on US exchanges positioned September to be the biggest month for IPO fundraising since the market essentially shut in January 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even though Arm Holdings Plc and Instacart stumbled in the days following their debuts, their recent stability is giving confidence to firms in the country — and around the world — that have been waiting for their chance.

“If a stable rate environment persists then 2023 will bring the establishment of a solid IPO market and 2024 could open the floodgates,” said Rainmaker Securities managing director Greg Martin. Read Full Article...

Ken Anderson
US IPOs Raised $7.2 Billion in September and Experts Predict a 2024 Frenzy

US companies that went public in September have raised around $7.2 billion, representing 56% of the total capital raised in global initial public offerings (IPOs) during the month. According to market experts, the rebound in market activity could hint at a significant IPO boom in 2024, assuming that interest rates will not keep rising anymore.

Arm, Instacart, and Klavyio Raised $6.5B in September

The US IPO market witnessed notable signs of resurgence in September, turning it into the biggest month for IPO fundraising since January 2022, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Arm's debut isn't a barometer for the IPO market

Arm's (ARM) stock skyrocketed in its opening day on the Nasdaq Thursday. But IPO experts warn that the British chipmaker's debut on the public markets isn't indicative of how other newly listed companies may perform.

Arm, a formerly public company, was taken private by SoftBank in 2016. The well-established chip designer says it powers 99% of premium smartphones.

"It's a licensing business model with mid-90s gross profit margins," Greg Martin, a managing director at middle-market investment bank Rainmaker Securities, told Yahoo Finance Live. "So it's a very different company. And I think we have to be careful about drawing insights ... The next few new issuances are more likely truly representative of whether there's a real reopening of the IPO market." Read Full Article...

Ken Anderson
Arm: Investors should be careful of framing as an ‘IPO signal,’ strategist says

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Arm Holdings (ARM) is making its IPO debut on the Nasdaq (^IXIC) on Thursday, September 14th. What does Arm's debut mean for the IPO market and for the future of the company? Rainmaker Securities Managing Director Greg Martin joins Yahoo Finance Live anchor Julie Hyman and Brad Smith to discuss. "We have to be careful about framing Arm as an IPO signal — it's a one-on-one company, it’s already been a public company," Martin cautions on investor hype directed at the IPO market. "So, you know, it's not a true new issuer." He also notes new issuances like Klaviyo, Instacart (CART), and Turo are more "truly representative of whether there's a real reopening of the IPO market." "The biggest uncertainty and the biggest area for concern… is 'is this going to power... future AI chip designs?'" Martin speculates on Arm’s growth outlook and liquidation risks from its majority stakeholder SoftBank

Ken Anderson
Bloomberg Markets 09/14/2023

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Arm has gone public in the biggest IPO of the year at a valuation hovering around $65 billion. Greg Martin of Rainmaker Securities joins "Bloomberg Markets" to discuss investor appetite for another major tech player in the AI race. Plus, Antoine Colaço, managing partner at Valor Capital Group, explains why his venture capital firm is leaning into climate tech investments. (Source: Bloomberg)

Ken Anderson
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe: How higher interest rates are changing the IPO market (libsyn.com)

Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract those dollars now…

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Ken Anderson
Arm IPO Is Helping to Revive the Market for Pre-Offer Investing
  • Arm’s multi-billion dollar IPO looks set to be year’s largest

  • Demand for companies prior to listing reaches $1.4 billion

Arm Holdings Ltd.’s multi-billion dollar initial public offering, which is set to launch in a week, is helping to revive interest in one small, battered corner of the financial market: stakes in companies that are set to go public soon.

Buying interest, or bids for so-called late-stage private stakes, has risen to about $1.4 billion from $1 billion at the depth of the stock market correction last year, according to Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates such transactions…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
The State of the IPO Market

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Expect broader re-opening in 4Q23 and 1H24, notes Greg Martin. He discusses the state of the IPO market. He talks about how the IPO bar is still high where it has to beat 5-6% risk-free return, strong growth and profitability metrics, and the scale needs to be $200M+ reoccurring revenue. He goes over some tailwinds for the IPO market including inflation lowering, stabilization of rates, and strong recent performance of tech stocks. Some notable potential IPOs include Instacart, Turo, Databricks, Stripe, and Chime. Finally, he looks at the outlook for tech IPO. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Ken Anderson
Investor Says $150 Billion SpaceX Valuation Seems Too Good to Be True

"It's hard to bet against Elon," but "there's a lot of leaps of faith you need to make about SpaceX."

SpaceX, Elon Musk's private space exploration company, was recently valued at $150 billion, making it the most valuable private corporation in the U.S. The company in July had an arrangement with investors to sell up to $750 million of stock at $81 per share, up from its last stock price of $77.

SpaceX recently told investors, per The Information, that it expects to see revenue of $8 billion in 2023, a number that would just about double the revenue the company saw in 2022.

But amid these soaring valuations, Greg Martin, the co-founder and managing director of Rainmaker Securities, thinks the company might be a bit overvalued, though he added that it is tough to bet against Musk…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
TechCrunch+ Roundup: Generative AI marketing, European edtech report, falling fintech valuations

Maintaining a full content pipeline is a laborious, subjective process, and with so many people involved, it can be hard to remain data-driven.

Generative AI tools speed up this work dramatically: Once a system is trained on your content, it will churn out keywords and ideas by the bushel, but human beings still need to separate the wheat from the chaff.

In a detailed TC+ post, Nick Zamanov, director of business development at Cyber Switching, explains how his team used OpenAI to boost site traffic, domain rating and backlinks within just a few months…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Fintech valuations have fallen. Where do they go from here?

With the market having changed dramatically since the heyday of 2021’s venture funding boom, fintech valuations have largely shifted accordingly.

With only a few exceptions, the once most valuable companies operating in the fintech space have seen their valuations drop significantly, based on secondary share activity as analyzed by Notice.co, a company that has built a pricing tool for the private markets.

One of the starkest examples of declines lies in payments giant Stripe, which saw its funding valuation hit $95 billion in March 2021. The company’s secondary market valuation peaked at nearly $200 billion in January 2022 (!), according to Notice’s data, which understandably caused frustration among employees who wondered why the company didn’t go public at that time. But as of the time of this writing, its secondary market valuation has plunged by 73% to $52.5 billion…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
SpaceX Is Now Worth More Than Boeing and Raytheon

SpaceX is rocketing up the rankings of aerospace and defense companies. It’s the most valuable aerospace and defense stock in the Western World, topping even the likes of Boeing and Raytheon Technologies.

Thursday, CNBC reported that SpaceX valuation hit $150 billion, based on a secondary sale of stock at $81 a share. SpaceX didn’t return a request for comment about the sale.

Elon Musk’s space company that pioneered reusable rockets is still privately held, but SpaceX still has shares that can be traded with sales arranged by the company or on third-party platforms such as Rainmaker Securities… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Space Business: Vehicle Variables

The big movers in space are struggling to get new launch vehicles off the ground, delaying other orbital projects and boosting Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the industry leader.

United Launch Alliance said its much-anticipated new Vulcan rocket needs more work after missing out on a hoped-for May debut. The problem is with propellant tanks in the vehicle’s second stage, one of which exploded during a test in March. More reinforcement is required, which means a trip back to the factory for refitting, then more testing, and then back to the launch pad. ULA CEO Tory Bruno is still predicting the rocket will launch this year…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
FTX Halts Sale of Its $500 Million Stake in AI Startup Anthropic

Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX has abruptly halted the sale of one of its most sought-after assets: a stake in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic.

Perella Weinberg Partners, the boutique investment bank that acts as an adviser to FTX, informed bidders this month about the pause, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing confidential information.

The halt came after several months during which multiple potential buyers assessed private information about the Anthropic stake, the people said. Semafor reported earlier in June that FTX had been shopping its Anthropic holding with an expectation of fetching “nine figures.”

Privately-held Anthropic, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees, has become one of the hottest companies of the current AI boom. Anthropic said in May that it had raised $450 million to support the development of its AI bot, dubbed Claude.

Buyers in the secondary market for shares in private companies have been actively seeking opportunities to acquire stakes in Anthropic, including at a premium, according to Rainmaker Securities co-founder Glen Anderson…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
AI Frenzy Draws Hordes to Private Markets in Industry Gold Rush
  • Pre-IPO shares of AI and machine-learning startups in vogue

  • Investors are bidding up OpenAI and Anthropic, Rainmaker says

The buzz around artificial intelligence has investors snapping up shares of startups on alternative venues, looking to find the next wave of technology giants before they even go public.

AI and machine learning have remained the most in-demand sectors every month this year, accounting for 25% to 30% of investor interest, according to EquityZen Securities Inc., a marketplace for privately held shares. On Rainmaker Securities, a platform that facilitates secondary stock transactions for private businesses, investors are paying up for shares of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, startups that are seen as leading the pack in AI…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
US IPO Market Shows Signs of Life After Restaurant Chain Cava’s Winning Debut

The US market for initial public offerings looks like it’s finally coming back to life after 18 months of deathly quiet.

Shares of Cava Group Inc. nearly doubled in its trading debut on June 15 after the fast-casual restaurant chain’s breakthrough IPO was priced well above the initial range set by underwriters. While the stock price has slipped a bit from its early surge, it still remains up about 84%.

Now, a trio of companies are preparing to follow Cava’s lead and tap the public markets this week. All told, about $1.5 billion is expected to be raised in IPOs on US exchanges in June, marking the first consecutive months with more than $1 billion sold since last fall, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Everyone was watching Cava very closely, so that’s going to be a good starting point for the opening up of the IPO market for new companies,” said Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates secondary transactions for private companies. “There are a lot of great companies that are private that have filed. The bar will still be high, but there’s clearly a lot of pent-up demand.”…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Cava Listing Heralds Potential IPO Market Rebound

Following a listing by restaurant group Cava, the American market is hungry for IPOs.

The fast casual restaurant chain went public via an initial public offering (IPO) last week, with its shares nearly doubling in its debut.

And as Bloomberg News reported Monday (June 26), three other companies are planning listings of their own this week, with $1.5 billion is expected to be raised in IPOs on U.S. exchanges overall this month.

This marks the first consecutive months with more than $1 billion sold since autumn of last year, the report said.

“Everyone was watching Cava very closely, so that’s going to be a good starting point for the opening up of the IPO market for new companies,” said Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, which handles secondary transactions for private companies…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
CAVA’s IPO was a ‘break in the clouds’ for the icy IPO market, says one of its early investors. Will others follow?

Klein, a partner at venture capital firm Revolution, hopped on the phone with Term Sheet less than two hours after market close and right before he headed off to a celebratory dinner with CAVA’s management team in Hudson Yards. After all, there was a lot to celebrate. After what’s been an extraordinarily dry IPO market, CAVA’s blockbuster IPO—in which shares rose 99% from market open to close to nearly $44—the Washington, D.C.-based fast-casual restaurant’s debut on the New York Stock Exchange offered a much-needed respite to the startup ecosystem: a glimmer of hope that exits are still within reach, even for unprofitable companies.

“I don’t want to overstate it, but it felt like a real break in the clouds from the environment that we’ve been in for the last 18 months or so,” Klein says… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson