IPO spinoff talk swirls around SpaceX’s Starlink

IPO spinoff talk is swirling around Starlink, the SpaceX-owned satellite internet constellation.

Citing people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reports that Starlink could be spun off via IPO by late 2024. Last week billionaire investor Ron Baron — the founder, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Baron Capital — told CNBC that he expects a Starlink IPO could happen around 2027, with SpaceX worth around $250 billion to $300 billion by that time.

SpaceX has not yet responded to a request for comment on possible Starlink IPO plans…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
The IPO market has grown quiet again. Here’s what is behind the shift in sentiment

It’s quiet out there in IPO land — very quiet.

This is it: the weeks before Thanksgiving usually bring a spate of large IPOs eager to go public before the holiday season starts.

“Whatever you are going to get between now and the end of the year should be happening right now,” Don Short, head of venture equity at InvestX, told me.

Except, nothing is happening… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Arm Leads Trio of High-Stakes Earnings After IPOs

Raising a combined $6.5 billion, three of this year’s biggest US tech listings — Arm Holdings Plc, Klaviyo Inc., and Instacart — face crucial earnings tests this week after lackluster starts for their shares.

The trio will be looking to restore investor faith with their first results since going public over a one-week stretch in September. While newly-listed firms typically give reliable guidance to investment banks to help set fair valuations and leave room to impress, a miss could batter the stocks given investors’ willingness to dump perceived losers.

“If you don’t beat your expectations the first few results you’ll be put in the penalty box for quite some time,” said Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities. “You absolutely have to make sure you make your first — and really second — quarter expectations, otherwise you could be in a world of trouble.” … Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Anthropic’s Value Quadrupled & Open AI’s Tripled: Role Of A.I. In Big Tech

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Anthropic develops general A.I. systems and large language models. Greg Martin discusses the role of generative A.I. in big tech and the importance of risking valuation for Anthropic and OpenAI. He talks about how Anthropic received a $2B investment from Alphabet (GOOGL) last week which continues the trend of how big tech and PE/VC investors have embraced generative A.I. He goes over generative A.I. trends investors should be watching. OpenAI is an A.I. research and deployment company, as well as the creator of ChatGPT. Martin notes that OpenAI’s value has tripled over its last round of valuation. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Ken Anderson
The Rising Number of High Net Worth Investors in Pre-IPO Securities

Why have wealthy investors surged as the leading buy-side participants in this market segment?

When Mark Zuckerberg launched Facebook, he likely didn’t expect that it would bring about a revolution in the way investors invest. As the social media phenom readied itself for IPO in 2012, both institutional investors and sophisticated individual investors identified the opportunity to access the steepest part of Facebook’s growth curve and began buying shares from early employees and investors prior to the IPO. The vibrant market for Facebook shares was a watershed moment, establishing a new market for actively trading private securities, albeit ones with high barriers to entry and distinct sets of challenges…

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Ken Anderson
Birkenstock IPO could look like Arm IPO: Expert

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Greg Martin, managing director at Rainmaker Securities joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Birkenstock IPO. With a 250-year-old legacy,the German footwear maker could face challenges due to consumer discretionary headwinds, according to Martin. He adds Birkenstock could be compared to Crocs or Allbirds once it goes public. Martin notes the company has seen nice, steady growth in the last decade.

Ken Anderson
Arm, Instacart, Birkenstock ... the IPOs of 2023 and beyond

Just when things seemed quiet on the Initial Public Offering (IPO) front, Arm caused some market excitement with its recent listing and then Instacart and Klaviyo followed suit.

Strong debuts could be enough to thaw some of the IPO freeze seen in the last 18 months. Year-to-date, there have been 84 traditional IPOs, that's according to Dealogic. In 2021, however, global markets delivered 2,682 IPOs raising $608bn (£500.54bn), including 459 IPOs in EMEA, raising $99bn. Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
IPO Optimism Grows, Fueling Hope for Global Recovery

Bankers and investors are optimistic that a string of initial public offerings will cap off a quiet year for new issuance before things accelerate in 2024.

That’s the consensus across Wall Street after a flurry of deals on US exchanges positioned September to be the biggest month for IPO fundraising since the market essentially shut in January 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even though Arm Holdings Plc and Instacart stumbled in the days following their debuts, their recent stability is giving confidence to firms in the country — and around the world — that have been waiting for their chance.

“If a stable rate environment persists then 2023 will bring the establishment of a solid IPO market and 2024 could open the floodgates,” said Rainmaker Securities managing director Greg Martin. Read Full Article...

Ken Anderson
US IPOs Raised $7.2 Billion in September and Experts Predict a 2024 Frenzy

US companies that went public in September have raised around $7.2 billion, representing 56% of the total capital raised in global initial public offerings (IPOs) during the month. According to market experts, the rebound in market activity could hint at a significant IPO boom in 2024, assuming that interest rates will not keep rising anymore.

Arm, Instacart, and Klavyio Raised $6.5B in September

The US IPO market witnessed notable signs of resurgence in September, turning it into the biggest month for IPO fundraising since January 2022, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Arm's debut isn't a barometer for the IPO market

Arm's (ARM) stock skyrocketed in its opening day on the Nasdaq Thursday. But IPO experts warn that the British chipmaker's debut on the public markets isn't indicative of how other newly listed companies may perform.

Arm, a formerly public company, was taken private by SoftBank in 2016. The well-established chip designer says it powers 99% of premium smartphones.

"It's a licensing business model with mid-90s gross profit margins," Greg Martin, a managing director at middle-market investment bank Rainmaker Securities, told Yahoo Finance Live. "So it's a very different company. And I think we have to be careful about drawing insights ... The next few new issuances are more likely truly representative of whether there's a real reopening of the IPO market." Read Full Article...

Ken Anderson
Arm: Investors should be careful of framing as an ‘IPO signal,’ strategist says

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Arm Holdings (ARM) is making its IPO debut on the Nasdaq (^IXIC) on Thursday, September 14th. What does Arm's debut mean for the IPO market and for the future of the company? Rainmaker Securities Managing Director Greg Martin joins Yahoo Finance Live anchor Julie Hyman and Brad Smith to discuss. "We have to be careful about framing Arm as an IPO signal — it's a one-on-one company, it’s already been a public company," Martin cautions on investor hype directed at the IPO market. "So, you know, it's not a true new issuer." He also notes new issuances like Klaviyo, Instacart (CART), and Turo are more "truly representative of whether there's a real reopening of the IPO market." "The biggest uncertainty and the biggest area for concern… is 'is this going to power... future AI chip designs?'" Martin speculates on Arm’s growth outlook and liquidation risks from its majority stakeholder SoftBank

Ken Anderson
Bloomberg Markets 09/14/2023

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Arm has gone public in the biggest IPO of the year at a valuation hovering around $65 billion. Greg Martin of Rainmaker Securities joins "Bloomberg Markets" to discuss investor appetite for another major tech player in the AI race. Plus, Antoine Colaço, managing partner at Valor Capital Group, explains why his venture capital firm is leaning into climate tech investments. (Source: Bloomberg)

Ken Anderson
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe: How higher interest rates are changing the IPO market (libsyn.com)

Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract those dollars now…

Listen to Podcast Here...

The podcast is also available through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Google Podcasts and Deezer

Ken Anderson
Arm IPO Is Helping to Revive the Market for Pre-Offer Investing
  • Arm’s multi-billion dollar IPO looks set to be year’s largest

  • Demand for companies prior to listing reaches $1.4 billion

Arm Holdings Ltd.’s multi-billion dollar initial public offering, which is set to launch in a week, is helping to revive interest in one small, battered corner of the financial market: stakes in companies that are set to go public soon.

Buying interest, or bids for so-called late-stage private stakes, has risen to about $1.4 billion from $1 billion at the depth of the stock market correction last year, according to Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates such transactions…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
The State of the IPO Market

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Expect broader re-opening in 4Q23 and 1H24, notes Greg Martin. He discusses the state of the IPO market. He talks about how the IPO bar is still high where it has to beat 5-6% risk-free return, strong growth and profitability metrics, and the scale needs to be $200M+ reoccurring revenue. He goes over some tailwinds for the IPO market including inflation lowering, stabilization of rates, and strong recent performance of tech stocks. Some notable potential IPOs include Instacart, Turo, Databricks, Stripe, and Chime. Finally, he looks at the outlook for tech IPO. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Ken Anderson
Investor Says $150 Billion SpaceX Valuation Seems Too Good to Be True

"It's hard to bet against Elon," but "there's a lot of leaps of faith you need to make about SpaceX."

SpaceX, Elon Musk's private space exploration company, was recently valued at $150 billion, making it the most valuable private corporation in the U.S. The company in July had an arrangement with investors to sell up to $750 million of stock at $81 per share, up from its last stock price of $77.

SpaceX recently told investors, per The Information, that it expects to see revenue of $8 billion in 2023, a number that would just about double the revenue the company saw in 2022.

But amid these soaring valuations, Greg Martin, the co-founder and managing director of Rainmaker Securities, thinks the company might be a bit overvalued, though he added that it is tough to bet against Musk…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
TechCrunch+ Roundup: Generative AI marketing, European edtech report, falling fintech valuations

Maintaining a full content pipeline is a laborious, subjective process, and with so many people involved, it can be hard to remain data-driven.

Generative AI tools speed up this work dramatically: Once a system is trained on your content, it will churn out keywords and ideas by the bushel, but human beings still need to separate the wheat from the chaff.

In a detailed TC+ post, Nick Zamanov, director of business development at Cyber Switching, explains how his team used OpenAI to boost site traffic, domain rating and backlinks within just a few months…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Fintech valuations have fallen. Where do they go from here?

With the market having changed dramatically since the heyday of 2021’s venture funding boom, fintech valuations have largely shifted accordingly.

With only a few exceptions, the once most valuable companies operating in the fintech space have seen their valuations drop significantly, based on secondary share activity as analyzed by Notice.co, a company that has built a pricing tool for the private markets.

One of the starkest examples of declines lies in payments giant Stripe, which saw its funding valuation hit $95 billion in March 2021. The company’s secondary market valuation peaked at nearly $200 billion in January 2022 (!), according to Notice’s data, which understandably caused frustration among employees who wondered why the company didn’t go public at that time. But as of the time of this writing, its secondary market valuation has plunged by 73% to $52.5 billion…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson